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With Trudeau’s polling down, it’s time for Liberals to break the glass – news today

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Party headed for horrific defeat unless something changes, like Trudeau leaving.

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This past week, the deputy governor of the Bank of Canada said, “You know those signs that say, ‘In an emergency, break the glass?’ Well, it’s time to break the glass.” Carolyn Rogers was talking about the economy, but easily could have been talking about the Liberal Party and their leadership problems.

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Surely, people in senior positions at Liberal HQ can read the polls — all of them — and assess that things are not good.

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The latest Ipsos poll has Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives leading Justin Trudeau’s Liberal nationally by 18 points. The Conservatives are at 41% nationally, compared to the Liberals are at 23%, while in Ontario, the lead is 19 points, in British Columbia, it’s 20 points, and it’s the same in Atlantic Canada.

It’s not just Ipsos: The latest Abacus poll also has an 18 point lead for the Conservatives; Nanos gives the Conservatives a 15-point lead; Mainstreet, a 20-point lead; and Leger, a 16-point lead. All these polls show the Conservatives leading across different age categories and in every region of the country other than Quebec.

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Someone must have told Trudeau that it’s time to go.

Well, in fact, I’ve been told several people have told him that his time is up, even close family have raised the issue. Depending on who you talk to, Trudeau is either listening and will leave, or is determined to stay to fight Poilievre.

None of us are in the room, none of us are in his head, so we don’t know what he will do. What is clear is that many Liberal MPs are going to head for the exits and seek greener pastures outside of the world of politics.

Reportedly, as many as 70 Liberal MPs have decided not to run in the next election, that’s 44% of the current caucus!

This is not the kind of normal turnover due to retirement that we see in all parties ahead of a pending election, this is a stampede for the exits. Not before passing Go and collecting their gold-plated MPs pension after six years of service, though.

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Yes, Canadians have noticed that in an attempt to stay in power until October 2025, the Trudeau government will move the election back by one week. If the minority Parliament lasts until that point, it will mean 80 current MPs who were elected in 2019 will qualify for their pension.

Among the 80 are 32 Conservatives, 22 Liberal, 20 Bloc and six NDP. The Conservatives aren’t worried about losing their seats right now, but the others are, so they will do what they can, and vote for whatever is put in front of them to get those annual pensions, ranging from $32,000 to $49,000 per year.

It may not be enough to get rich on, but it’s a nice cushion as you look for other work. And plenty of Liberals especially will be looking for new work.

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The seat models for the current polling show the Conservatives winning more than 200 seats, but the Liberals could drop as many as 100 seats. One longtime Liberal worries that his party will be reduced to their strongholds in Toronto and Montreal, with just a smattering of seats outside of these two cities.

It’s happened before. In 1984, when Brian Mulroney won the biggest majority ever, the Liberals were reduced to 40 seats. In 2011, when Stephen Harper won government and the NDP the opposition, the Liberals only wound up with 34 seats.

If the line continues, Trudeau could be leading his party into the same kind of embarrassing territory.

Someone in the Liberal Party needs to break the glass.

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