Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
UPDATED: May 1, 2023
Weekly Commentary: The final Tony Awards nomination predictions have been updated in all categories. See the full list below, and check the official rankings on each of the respective Tony awards pages.
The most competitive race to keep an eye on is lead actor in a play, but any category can yield a surprise.
The Tony Awards eligibility cut-off date for the 2022–23 season is April 27, 2023, for all Broadway productions which meet all other eligibility requirements. The 2023 Tony Awards nominations will be announced on May 2, 2023.
The 76th Annual Tony Awards are scheduled for June 11, 2023, at the United Palace in New York City. It will air on CBS and Paramount+ and produced by Ricky Kirshner and Glenn Weiss, with the latter also serving as the director.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
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Best Musical
Image Credit: Marc J. Franklin “& Juliet” (Stephen Sondheim Theatre)
“Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre) ***
“New York, New York” (St. James Theatre)
“Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre)
“Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)Tony Awards category page with rankings>>>
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Best Play
Image Credit: Joan Marcus “Between Riverside and Crazy” (Hayes Theater)
“Fat Ham” (American Airlines Theatre)
“Leopoldstadt” (Longacre Theatre) ***
“Life of Pi” (Gerald Schoenfeld Theatre)
“Prima Facie” (Golden Theatre)Tony Awards category page with rankings>>>
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Best Musical Revival
Image Credit: Joan Marcus “Camelot” (Vivian Beaumont Theater – Lincoln Center Theater)
“Into the Woods” (St. James Theatre) ***
“Parade” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)
“Sweeney Todd” (Lunt-Fontanne Theatre)Tony Awards category page with rankings>>>
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Best Play Revival
Image Credit: Julieta Cervantes “A Doll’s House” (Hudson Theatre)
“The Piano Lesson” (Barrymore Theatre) ***
“The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window” (James Earl Jones Theatre)
“Topdog/Underdog” (Golden Theatre)Tony Awards category page with rankings>>>
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Best Actor (Musical)
Image Credit: Getty Images J. Harrison Ghee
“Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)
Josh Groban
“Sweeney Todd” (Lunt-Fontanne Theatre)
Ben Platt ***
“Parade” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)
Colton Ryan
“New York, New York” (St. James Theatre)
Will Swenson
“A Beautiful Noise: The Neil Diamond Musical” (Broadhurst Theatre)Tony Awards category page with rankings>>>
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Best Actor (Play)
Image Credit: Getty Images Oscar Isaac
“The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window” (James Earl Jones Theatre)
Corey Hawkins ***
“Topdog/Underdog” (Golden Theatre)
Stephen McKinley Henderson
“Between Riverside and Crazy” (Hayes Theater)
Wendell Pierce
“Death of a Salesman” (Hudson Theatre)
Marcel Spears
“Fat Ham” (American Airlines Theatre)Tony Awards category page with rankings>>>
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Best Actress (Musical)
Image Credit: Paul Kolnik Annaleigh Ashford
“Sweeney Todd” (Lunt-Fontanne Theatre)
Sara Bareilles
“Into the Woods” (St. James Theatre)
Victoria Clark ***
“Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre)
Micaela Diamond
“Parade” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)
Anna Uzele
“New York, New York” (St. James Theatre)Tony Awards category page with rankings>>>
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Best Actress (Play)
Image Credit: Getty Images Rachel Brosnahan
“The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window” (James Earl Jones Theatre)
Jessica Chastain ***
“A Doll’s House” (Hudson Theatre)
Jodie Comer
“Prima Facie” (Golden Theatre)
Laura Linney
“Summer, 1976” (Samuel J. Friedman Theatre)
Audra McDonald
“Ohio State Murders” (James Earl Jones Theatre)Tony Awards category page with rankings>>>
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Best Featured Actor (Musical)
Image Credit: Getty Kevin Cahoon
“Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre)
Justin Cooley
“Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre)
Kevin Del Aguila ***
“Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)
Alex Joseph Grayson
“Parade” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)
Alex Newell
“Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre)Tony Awards category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Best Featured Actor (Play)
Image Credit: Getty Arian Moayed
“A Doll’s House” (Hudson Theatre)
André De Shields
“Death of a Salesman” (Hudson Theatre)
Michael Potts
“The Piano Lesson” (Barrymore Theatre)
Brandon Uranowitz ***
“Leopoldstadt” (Longacre Theatre)
David Zayas
“Cost of Living” (Samuel J. Friedman Theatre)Tony Awards category page with rankings>>>
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Best Featured Actress (Musical)
Julia Lester
“Into the Woods” (St. James Theatre)
Alli Mauzey
“Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre)
Bonnie Milligan ***
“Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre)
NaTasha Yvette Williams
“Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)
Betsy Wolfe
“& Juliet” (Stephen Sondheim Theatre)Tony Awards category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Best Featured Actress (Play)
Image Credit: Joan Marcus Danielle Brooks ***
“The Piano Lesson” (Barrymore Theatre)
D’Arcy Carden
“The Thanksgiving Play” (Hayes Theater)
Sharon D. Clarke
“Death of a Salesman” (Hudson Theatre)
Nikki Crawford
“Fat Ham” (American Airlines Theatre)
Kara Young
“Cost of Living” (Samuel J. Friedman Theatre)Tony Awards category page with rankings>>>
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Best Director (Musical)
Image Credit: Photo by Arturo Holmes/Getty Images Michael Arden ***
“Parade” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)
Casey Nicholaw
“Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)
Jack O’Brien
“Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre)
Jessica Stone
“Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre)
Susan Stroman
“New York, New York” (St. James Theatre)Tony Awards category page with rankings>>>
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Best Director (Play)
Image Credit: Saheem Ali Saheem Ali
“Fat Ham” (American Airlines Theatre)
LaTanya Richardson Jackson
“The Piano Lesson” (Barrymore Theatre)
Kenny Leon
“Topdog/Underdog” (Golden Theatre)
Jamie Lloyd ***
“A Doll’s House” (Hudson Theatre)
Max Webster
“Life of Pi” (Gerald Schoenfeld Theatre)Tony Awards category page with rankings>>>
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Best Musical Book
Image Credit: Matthew Murphy “& Juliet” (Stephen Sondheim Theatre)
David West Read
“Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre) ***
David Lindsay-Abaire
“Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre)
Robert Horn
“Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)
Matthew López, Amber RuffinTony Awards category page with rankings>>>
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Best Original Score
“Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre) ***
Jeanine Tesori, David Lindsay-Abaire
“New York, New York” (St. James Theatre)
John Kander, Lin-Manuel Miranda
“Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre)
Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally
“Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)
Marc Shaiman, Scott WittmanTony Awards category page with rankings>>>
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Best Choreography
Image Credit: Matthew Murphy & Evan Zimmerman “& Juliet” (Stephen Sondheim Theatre)
Jennifer Weber
“A Beautiful Noise: The Neil Diamond Musical” (Broadhurst Theatre)
Steven Hoggett
“New York, New York” (St. James Theatre)
Susan Stroman
“KPOP” (Circle in the Square Theatre)
Jennifer Weber
“Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre) ***
Casey Nicholaw -
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Tony Awards Predictions Categories
BEST MUSICAL | BEST PLAY | MUSICAL REVIVAL | PLAY REVIVAL | ACTOR (MUSICAL) | ACTOR (PLAY) | ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | ACTRESS (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTOR (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTOR (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTRESS (PLAY) | DIRECTOR (MUSICAL) | DIRECTOR (PLAY) | ORIGINAL SCORE | MUSICAL BOOK | CHOREOGRAPHY
About the Tony Awards
The Antoinette Perry Award for Excellence in Broadway Theatre, better known as the Tony Awards, is given out annually by the American Theatre Wing and The Broadway League, recognizing excellence in live Broadway theatre. The ceremony, held annually in New York City, was founded by theatre producer and director Brock Pemberton and is named after Antoinette “Tony” Perry, an actress, producer and theatre director who was co-founder of the American Theatre Wing.
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